Looking forward to growth in 2025
The retail real estate sector surged into 2025 with notable strength, building on the momentum of a resilient 2024. Vacancy rates have hovered near historic lows, while rental growth has maintained a steady climb—signaling strong tenant demand and landlord leverage. With new retail construction remaining exceptionally limited and a growing list of national and regional brands poised to expand this year, the fundamentals are lining up for another year of robust performance. Investor confidence is responding in kind, with a measured uptick in both retail center and single-tenant property transactions.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains highly favorable for well-positioned retail assets—even as macroeconomic uncertainties, such as tariffs and consumer debt pressures, introduce potential headwinds. Still, the sector’s supply-demand equilibrium appears resilient. With minimal new inventory entering the market, even modest fluctuations in demand are unlikely to disrupt overall performance. In fact, the scarcity of new development may serve as a stabilizing force, protecting asset values and supporting occupancy rates.
In this climate of opportunity and strategic complexity, Marcus & Millichap proudly presents the 2025 Retail National Investment Forecast. This report is designed to equip investors with actionable insights and nuanced market intelligence as they navigate evolving conditions across the country. Our investment and financing professionals are here to help you capitalize on today’s trends—and prepare for tomorrow’s.
Florida’s Gulf Coast: A Prime Market for Commercial Investment
As we move through 2025, the commercial real estate market continues to present strong opportunities for investors in Southwest Florida. Nationally, retail real estate remains a resilient asset class, and in Naples, the conditions are particularly favorable for savvy commercial property owners and buyers.
Collier County’s high-income, fast-growing population base and tourism-fueled economy create exceptional demand for well-located retail and service-oriented commercial spaces. Naples consistently attracts both permanent residents and affluent seasonal visitors, supporting a diverse range of retail tenants from fine dining and wellness to financial services and boutique retailers.
Market Dynamics in Favor of Investors
- Retail vacancy rates are near historic lows, with multi-tenant centers at all-time-low vacancy and single-tenant spaces reporting rates below long-term averages.
- Time on market for retail spaces is the shortest in over a decade, averaging 9.3 months, with food service and fitness tenants leading leasing demand.
- Foot traffic has grown across property types, especially in fast-casual dining, grocery, and medical retail, making neighborhood and unanchored strip centers high-performing assets.
- Retail construction is at a historical low, creating scarcity and competition for quality space—which puts upward pressure on rents and helps maintain high occupancy.
Why Naples?
As part of Florida’s prosperous Gulf Coast, Naples is situated within one of the most desirable commercial corridors in the nation. In-migration continues at a high pace, while zoning restrictions limit overdevelopment—preserving the value of existing commercial holdings.
- Consumer spending remains strong, with general merchandise, food, and wellness categories seeing steady growth.
- Medical and service-sector tenants are expanding into retail centers, particularly to meet the demands of the growing 65+ demographic.
- Retail landlords are increasingly targeting backfill opportunities, with value-oriented brands like Aldi, Dollar Tree, and Five Below aggressively expanding.
What It Means for You
At Collier Realty & Management, we specialize in helping commercial property owners and investors maximize the potential of their assets. Whether you’re considering repositioning a property, evaluating a strip center acquisition, or planning a 1031 exchange into a low-maintenance net-leased asset, now is a strategic time to act.
We offer:
- Expert commercial real estate advisory
- Leasing strategies for high-credit tenants
- Portfolio repositioning and valuation
- Local insight backed by national trends
Partner with Local Experts Who Understand the Naples Market
Collier Realty & Management is your dedicated partner in Southwest Florida commercial real estate. We offer localized strategies with the backing of decades of experience and a finger on the pulse of regional economic trends.
Let’s unlock your property’s potential.
📞 Call us at [insert phone number] or visit https://napleshomeseller.com
📍 Proudly serving Naples, Bonita Springs, and Marco Island
Marcus & Millchap’s 2025 Retail National Investment Forcast for Tampa – St. Petersburg Florida
Florida’s Residential Influx Facilitating Low Vacancy Across Tampa-St. Petersburg
Expansion at metro’s edges warrant retailer move-ins. Continued demand by businesses has held Tampa’s vacancy rate below 3.5 percent since mid-year 2022. Both national and international retailers are drawn to the market’s growing population and burgeoning outer submarkets. Japanese store chain Daiso will be arriving in Northdale, while Utah-based soda shop Swig will open their second Florida location in Lutz. As outer areas grow in population, consumer demand will rise, providing positive rent movement among retail assets. North Hillsborough and Pasco County both recorded double-digit percent rent growth last year, and could be poised to retain some of that momentum in 2025. Both submarkets reported little discrepancy between single-tenant and multi-tenant occupancy, showcasing the strong retailer demand in the outer areas that has led to historically tight vacancy. Nearly all Tampa submarkets entered 2025 with sub-3.5 percent vacancy, with the rates in Pinellas County and the Sarasota-Bradenton area only slightly higher.
Investors target properties in and around downtown. After increasing last year, transaction volume may keep growing in urban submarkets like Pinellas and Central Tampa. If mid-week foot tra c continues on the path of improvement noted last year, retail property fundamentals for assets here may improve, drawing more investors. Flood risks will likely continue to be a concern for buyers, which may shift some attention to properties further inland. Investment activity may grow in areas such as the Interstate 75 Corridor, North Hillsborough and East Pasco County as a result. Additionally, with segment vacancy rates below the metrowide average, these submarkets may also attract buyers seeking stable multi-tenant assets.
2025 MARKET FORECAST
NRI Rank 3: Rapid revenue growth and few weaknesses aid Tampa in holding a top three placement again this year.
EMPLOYMENT: Employment growth will tick up this year, increasing the role count by 21,000 jobs. The leisure and hospitality sector will likely lead this improvement once again this year.
CONSTRUCTION: A construction pullback will result in the least new square feet since 2012, raising inventory by 0.4 percent in 2025. New supply is centered around the Sarasota-Bradenton area.
VACANCY: A reduced construction pipeline will help nudge vacancy down to 3.1 percent by year-end. The rate is set to remain under 3.2 percent for a fourth consecutive year.
RENT: Average asking rent growth will continue to slow following large post-pandemic gains. Even so, the metro’s rate will increase to $23.45 per square foot by the end of December.